Calculate weighted pipeline value by multiplying deal amounts by stage probabilities with close date forecasting and quota coverage.
A sales pipeline has two totals: everything in it, and everything likely to close. This calculator applies a close probability to each stage, multiplies it by deal amount, and sums the results to produce weighted pipeline value, expected revenue by close date, and quota coverage. The surprise for most users: a pipeline that covers quota on paper is usually far short once weighted - a $500,000 pipeline sitting mostly at 20 percent is worth only $100,000. The stage probabilities you enter are the whole game, and they are assumptions, not statistics.
A concrete input and expected output from the current implementation.
Input
Deal A: $50,000, qualification (20%), closes September Deal B: $50,000, proposal (40%), closes September Deal C: $50,000, negotiation (80%), closes October Quota: $100,000
Expected output
Weighted pipeline value: $70,000 Quota coverage: 70% Expected by close date: September $30,000, October $40,000
Each deal contributes amount times probability: 10,000 + 20,000 + 40,000 = 70,000. Coverage is the weighted total divided by quota, so 70,000 / 100,000 = 70 percent.
Every deal is multiplied by its stage's close probability and the results are summed, so a $50,000 deal at 40 percent contributes $20,000 while a $200,000 deal at 10 percent also contributes $20,000. The unweighted sum is shown alongside, and the gap between the two totals is the pipeline's risk. Probabilities apply to every deal in a stage, so change one weight and the whole forecast shifts.
Each deal's weighted value is assigned to its close month, so expected revenue appears per period rather than as one lump sum. This exposes timing risk: a month whose expected value is concentrated in a few deals will fall short if those deals slip. Deals without a close date are grouped separately so they cannot prop up a forecast. Quota coverage is the weighted total divided by quota.
Because most dollars in a pipeline are unlikely to close. The raw sum counts every deal at face value; weighting discounts each by its stage probability, so early-stage dollars count for a fraction of themselves. The gap is not a bug, it is the tool showing how much of the pipeline is genuinely expected revenue. If the gap looks extreme, your stage weights may be too low.
Ideally your own historical close rates: for deals that reached each stage, how many actually closed, measured over a few quarters. Without history, a widely used rule of thumb is roughly 10 percent at qualification, 50 percent at proposal, and 90 percent at negotiation. Whatever you enter, read the result as a planning number, not a promise. Weighting neither improves win rate nor compensates for a thin pipeline.
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