Build sales forecasts using pipeline, historical trends, and growth rate methods with monthly/quarterly revenue projections.
A sales forecast is a guess with arithmetic, and this calculator makes the arithmetic visible. It projects revenue three ways: expected pipeline value (each open deal counted at its win probability), historical trends carried forward from recent periods, and growth rates compounded over months or quarters. The surprise most users hit is the gap between the pipeline total and the forecast: a $60,000 pipeline weighted by realistic probabilities can project $24,000, and that gap is the method working, not an error. The output is an expected value, not a promise.
A concrete input and expected output from the current implementation.
Input
Three deals open in the pipeline: Deal A $10,000 at 80% win probability, Deal B $20,000 at 50%, Deal C $30,000 at 20%.
Expected output
Expected revenue for the period: $24,000. The deals' face value totals $60,000.
Each deal contributes its value times its probability: 8,000 + 10,000 + 6,000 = 24,000. The weighted sum is the forecast; $60,000 is what the pipeline would be worth only if every deal closed.
Each open deal contributes its value times its win probability, so a $10,000 deal at 80% adds $8,000 to the period forecast while a $30,000 deal at 20% adds only $6,000. The forecast is the sum of these weighted contributions. The result is an expected value - the average outcome if this pipeline were repeated many times - not a count of what will close.
The historical-trend method averages or extends recent periods, treating the pattern of past months as the baseline for the next one. The growth-rate method compounds multiplicatively: the rate applies to each successive period, so three quarters of 5% growth multiply revenue by 1.05 x 1.05 x 1.05, about 15.8% total, not 15%.
Because each deal is discounted by the probability you assigned it. Only a deal at 100% counts in full; the others count at fractions of their value. The difference between the pipeline's face value and the expected total is the point of the method - it converts optimistic totals into a realistic central estimate.
No - it produces a central estimate from whatever inputs you give it, not a certainty. Actual revenue scatters around the forecast, and how wide the scatter is depends on how reliable your probabilities and growth rates are. Use it to size the gap to the target and test scenarios, not to promise a number to the board. Inputs stay in the browser and are not uploaded.
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