Score and prioritize business risks by probability, impact, and velocity with risk heat maps and mitigation cost-benefit analysis.
Risk scores in this calculator are products of judgment, and multiplying two judgments does not make them objective. You rate each risk's probability and impact on a fixed scale; the tool multiplies them into a score out of 25, ranks the list, and plots every risk on a heat map. A third input, velocity, captures how quickly a risk would materialize, and a mitigation cost-benefit pass compares spending against the expected loss it avoids. The most common surprise: the same score can come from opposite profiles, so the map position matters as much as the number.
A concrete input and expected output from the current implementation.
Input
Add these three risks to the register: 1. Key supplier goes bankrupt - probability 3, impact 4 2. Customer data breach - probability 2, impact 5 3. Key employee leaves - probability 4, impact 2
Expected output
Risk scores, all out of a maximum 25: 1) 3 x 4 = 12, 2) 2 x 5 = 10, 3) 4 x 2 = 8. Ranked order: supplier bankruptcy (12), data breach (10), key employee departure (8). On the heat map, risk 1 sits in the region where both ratings are above average; risks 2 and 3 land at opposite ends of the map, one rare but severe and one common but minor.
Each score is the product of the two 1-5 ratings, so 3 x 4 = 12, 2 x 5 = 10, and 4 x 2 = 8 fix the rank order. The map plots the two ratings directly rather than the product, which is why the breach and the departure land far apart despite their scores differing by only two.
Each risk is rated on the same probability scale and impact scale (commonly 1 to 5). The tool multiplies the two ratings into a single score out of 25, sorts the register by that score, and places each risk on a heat map whose axes are the two ratings. Because the inputs are ordinal judgments, the score is a priority number, not a probability or a percentage.
Velocity rates how quickly a risk would materialize once it starts moving; the tool surfaces fast-arriving risks for earlier action even when their scores are mid-range. The mitigation pass compares the cost of a treatment against the expected loss it avoids, typically probability times financial exposure, so a cheap fix for a frequent, expensive risk shows a strong return.
It is a relative priority number: the product of your probability and impact ratings, on a scale where 25 is the worst case. It is not a probability and not a dollar figure. It means this risk outranks one scoring 8 and falls below one scoring 15, provided you rated all of them on the same scale. All scoring happens locally in your browser, so nothing you enter is uploaded.
Not automatically. The ranking tells you which risks score highest; the mitigation cost-benefit pass shows where spending buys the most loss reduction, and deliberately accepting a risk you cannot economically treat is a legitimate outcome. The calculator organizes the decision; it does not make it. Risk appetite, budget, and timing still belong to you.
The example and behavioral notes were checked against the browser implementation. Standards and primary references below define the relevant format, formula, or platform behavior.
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